The Red Wave?
On November 8, political pundits, economists, and international spectators alike watched on as the momentuous 2022 Midterm Elections unfolded. Often seen as a referendum on the ruling party, many expected a “red wave” – a significant victory for the right-wing Republicans. While unanimously agreeing to a substantial takeover of the House of Representatives, most also conceded that Republicans would take control of the Senate by winning a majority of the 35 seats up for re-election. Apart from a series of perceived failures of the Biden Administration, and a fragile public image for many Democrats, there was also a sign of acknowledgement to the “Pendulum Rule”, which was notably amplified by Texas Senator Ted Cruz. It was an observation that whenever one side of the political aisle remained in power for too long, their empowered partisan motivations would alarm the electorate and cause a reverse pressure on the country’s political agenda, and the “political pendulum” of voter support would then swing back towards the other side.
However, the Red Wave did not proliferate nearly as much as expected. The first sign of alarm came from the highly contested Senate race in the State of Pennsylvania, where the poll-projected Fetterman +2 race saw the Democratic contender leading by over 5 points by midnight of Election Day. The now-turned red tide further subsided into a red trickle as Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake trailed long-time politician Katie Hobbs by a significant margin in the initial hours of the race.
Eventually, President Biden confirmed that Democrats enjoyed a “strong night” in a press conference the following day, as they not only survived a predicted whitewash, but also would go on to win the Senate even if Republicans won Georgia (As the Democratic Vice-President would break the 50-50 tie).
Well, then, what exactly happened? To analyze the Democratic Party’s historic victory, we must first look at how they did it.
The Democratic Party, acknowledging their unpopularity amongst Americans who were generally unsatisfied with the results of their policies, played the offensive game. To maximize their electability, Democrats decided to shift the question poised to voters: instead of contemplating whether Democrats were capable enough to lead voters, they were now influenced to look at the races from another perspective: whether Republicans could be trusted to lead them. By actively pointing out hyperbolically partisan candidates, or extensively publicizing ethics-based material, the Democrats were able to undermine public trust in many of the Republican contenders. For example, left-leaning news publication The New Yorker, amongst many others, directly attributed Mastriano to “Christian nationalism” – which clearly did not ameliorate him. In Georgia’s case of Herschel Walker v Raphael Warnock, Democrats also scrutinized Republican candidate Walkers’ family background, alleging sexual misconduct in order to overshadow Democratic incumbent Warnock’s allegations of spousal abuse.
In politics, there is generally a rule of thumb: to get elected, you must both make it hard for it to vote for your opponent, and make it easy to vote for you.
As President Biden’s approval ratings and generic ballot poll results looked increasingly bleak in the initial stages of his term, Republicans basically earned condition 1: from high-profile inflation containment measures like FED rate hikes, to even pop culture picking up on President Biden’s occasional social blunders, Republicans had been in a relaxed mode since the beginning. Feeling the liberty to elect whoever comes to mind and appeals to the most right-wing / MAGA ideals, the Red Party basically flunked the second criteria. In the wake of an economic recovery from a pandemic, and a potentially catastrophic geopolitical conflict, voters generally prioritize certainty. This was also seen in the 2020 Presidential elections, whereby despite relatively acceptable economic performance by Donald Trump, his unnpredictability and extreme political affiliations drove voters away. However, Republicans turned a blind eye to it, and disproportionately focused on effectiveness, rather than electability, when nominating candidates in the primary elections.
Associating “election denialism” to a firmer allegiance to action in the pursuit of the MAGA-Republican agenda, Republicans wholeheartedly accepted these far-right candidates, without considering the general electorate’s opinions on election deniers. That turned out to be a fatal mistake. While these candidates may be more popular with conservative voters, they were also bigger “red flags” for the overall electorate – making it very difficult for them to gain statewide office outside of a deep-red state.
Candidate Quality
On the subject of electability, what exactly does a “quality candidate” entail? While this may be a very standard question with many standard answers, 3 main traits put under the spotlight were: authenticity, substance, and relevance.
Firstly, a candidate must be genuine to establish a connection with the electorate, allowing them to be trusted. Exemplified in the Pennsylvania Senate race between Oz and Fetterman, while Oz may have been a stronger candidate overall, with stronger eloquence and substantive matter, the Democrats’ strategic decisions to paint Oz as inauthentic turned out to be a game-changer. On the abortion issue, for example, ex-surgeon Mehmet Oz was heavily called out for his change of stance. From defending Roe v. Wade in 2019, Oz very recently switched sides on this cultural issue, and poised as a pro-lifer. Fetterman called it out as early as September, pulling up old transcripts of Oz and said that “Oz can’t have it both ways.” Oz’s “snake oil salesman” (Barack Obama, 2022) persona was further reinforced by a Fetterman advertisement calling Oz’s ingenuity of primarily residing in New Jersey, before and during a Pennsylvania Senate campaign. Hence, while few doubted Oz’s ability to lead, many doubted his intentions and did not trust him to serve Pennsylvanians’ interests. Meanwhile, Fetterman portrayed himself as a genuine, friendly leader who wished to adopt a more informal, personal relationship with the Pennsylvanians, with his norm-defying wardrobe option of his signature black hoodie.
Speaking of the ability to lead, another crucial indicator of candidate quality is evidence of the actual ability to govern. While candidates are traditionally expected to “make noise” in the public square to draw awareness and empower voters, a decent resume to qualify that influence is still necessary. Undoubtedly, a cake-without-icing politician is dull and un-electable (see Ron Paul), but a candidate cannot make their entire portfolio about solely controversies – a cake cannot be purely made of icing. This arguably made the difference between Florida governor Ron DeSantis’ overwhelming victory, and the failed campaigns of Don Bolduc and Doug Mastriano. DeSantis, beyond being a hugely controversial political figure entangled in high-profile stories like the “Don’t Say Gay Bill” and a counter-intuitive COVID policy of basically no policy, was a wildly effective governor. From resilience against COVID, to effective leadership during hururicanes like Ian, DeSantis has a strong track record to qualify his opinions. As for the other two failed candidates, voters only recognize and credit (or discredit) them based on their challenging of the 2020 elections. They have not proven any leadership capability beyond that.
Finally, on the ubiquitous macrotheme present in this election cycle – questioning the 2020 elections. Running on this radically right-leaning perspective has proven to be extremely ineffective, because even though Trump’s influence over the Republican base has been expanding, his national influence over the general public has been shrinking at the same pace. These highly Trump-leading candidates were seen as alienating the American public, with increasing numbers of citizens not sharing their beliefs. Meanwhile, relatively centric candidates, like New York gubernatorial Lee Zeldin, enjoyed an unexpectedly tight race in the country’s deep-blue financial hub.
Interestingly enough, the Republican Party sent in stronger candidates for races that were difficult to win, and weaker candidates for closer races.
The Future of MAGA
The overwhelming rejection of “Trumpian” candidates across the country – from Arizona’s Kari Lake, to Pennsylvania’s Doug Mastriano, got people thinking whether Donald Trump’s impact on the electability and hence success of the Republican Party was positive at all. The epitome of Trumpist politics: election denial, heavy nationalism, and a highly ambitious right wing, arguably led to the Republicans’ demise in 2022. Meanwhile, a widely talked about potential candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, was seen as an exemplification of a more successful version of MAGA. Also a loud player in the cultural war, and with an almost intentional disregard for political correctness, many pundits have closely hinted at a DeSantis 2024 presidential ticket.
Even the “establishment” Republicans have seemed to show a bias. Within a span of five days, mainstream Republican news outlet Fox News has almost blatantly shifted the influence within the Party. It all started on 5 November, when Fox ran a headline piece on how Trump lashed out at DeSantis by calling him “Ron DeSanctimonious”. This apparent discord between the two 2024 frontrunners, with Trump vilified as the initiator of the conflict, turned out to possibly be step one of Fox’s “Trump overthrow”. On November 9, Fox published another headline story, pointing out how J.D. Vance, who was endorsed by Trump amongst a primary race of three prominent candidates, did not credit Trump at all during his victory speech. To douse a final hope of a comeback for Trump, DeSantis convincingly beat his opponent Charlie Crist, and as the Republicans cheered on, Fox published an opinion piece calling DeSantis the “new Republican Party leader”.
One could argue that former President Trump’s days as a Republican champion are numbered – but his ideals of MAGA will stay on. The younger, highly qualified firebrand, Ron DeSantis, is also seen as a MAGA candidate who, like MAGA would have, championed against immigration.
Finally, as demographics and narratives come and go, America’s swing states have also come, and especially, gone. The “Republicanification” of Florida and Ohio was reinforced, as Republican candidates from both states enjoyed very convincing victories – a far cry from the highly contested swing state situation faced by Republican candidates until 2016. Meanwhile, states that used to be safe Democratic strongholds like New York may have, under Zeldin’s moderate-right campaigning, become a more highly contested state. In the 2022 midterms, New York has presented the GOP with four more House seats, on top of a one-seat reduction from the 2020 census. The gubernatorial race has also become much closer than usual, as Lee lost by just over 5%, almost putting New York directly into the “tossup state”. Just four years ago in 2018, Democrats won by over 20%.
Arguably, both Parties won in this election, provided both sides managed their expectations. Democrats not only comfortably avoided a humiliatingly predicted whitewash, they also basically got rid of Donald Trump – a significant challenge to Democratic campaigning. Meanwhile, Republicans gained control of the House, avoiding the “one party control” scenario McCarthy famously alludes to. They also gave themselves two less states to worry about as they turned into Republican safeguards. Of course, in the meantime, Republicans are likely to start eyeing the 28 electoral votes from the Empire State.
Citations
Edelman, A. (2022, October 29). In 5 key battlegrounds, most GOP state legislative nominees are election deniers, report finds. CNBC. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/29/in-5-key-battlegrounds-most-gop-nominees-are-election-deniers.html
Fox News. (2022, November 9). Ron DeSantis' 'win for the ages,' Fetterman beats oz in Pennsylvania and more top headlines. Fox News . Retrieved from https://www.foxnews.com/us/ron-desantis-marco-rubio-florida-win
Flegenheimer, M. (2016, April 17). Ted Cruz's conservatism: The pendulum swings consistently right. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/18/us/politics/ted-cruz-conservative.html
Hagstrom, A. (2022, November 9). JD Vance didn't mention Trump in Ohio Senate victory speech despite endorsement. Fox News. Retrieved from https://www.foxnews.com/politics/jd-vance-didnt-mention-trump-ohio-senate-victory-speech-despite-endorsement
Miller, A. M. (2022, November 5). Trump mocks desantis at Pennsylvania rally: 'Ron DeSanctimonious'. Fox News . Retrieved from https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-mocks-desantis-pennsylvania-rally-ron-desanctimonious
NBC News. (2022, November 19). New York House midterm election 2022: Live results and updates. NBC News. Retrieved from https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/new-york-house-results
The New York Times. (2022, November 8). Pennsylvania U.S. senate election results. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-us-senate.html
Norcia, A. (2022, September 10). The Campaign to Troll Dr. Oz for Living in New Jersey. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/07/magazine/dr-oz-pennsylvania-senate-race.html
Parish, M. (2022, September 11). Oz clarifies abortion views, Fetterman capitalizes on conflicting views in Senate race. Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved from https://www.penncapital-star.com/election-2022/oz-clarifies-abortion-views-fetterman-capitalizes-on-conflicting-views-in-senate-race/
Peek, L. (2022, November 12). Ron DeSantis is the new Republican Party leader. Fox News. Retrieved from https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/ron-desantis-new-republican-party-leader
Rakich, N., Matlin, C., Rogers, K., Skelley, G., Thomson-Deveaux, A., & Samuels, A. (2022, November 14). How Election Week 2022 went down. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved from https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/
Ulloa, J. (2022, November 15). Katie Hobbs, who defied Trump in Arizona, tops kari lake for governor. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/us/politics/katie-hobbs-arizona-governor.html
The Washington Post. (2022, November 6). Obama slams dr. Oz for peddling political 'snake oil'. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/obama-slams-dr-oz-for-peddling-political-snake-oil/2022/11/05/2dd7d10f-136f-4eef-acbb-30236c432afe_video.html
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